Does the “Warmest 100” reveal results of the 2012 Hottest 100 countdown?

Thanks to the work of a statistics geek from Brisbane the results of the 2012 triple j Hottest 100 may have been revealed a week early, forcing bookies to close the betting.

Nick Drewe has used statistics from votes posted to Facebook, Twitter and other social media hubs to create The Warmest 100, which he says is an accurate prediction of the final countdown. Drewe explained to The Vine that he noticed that the URL structure of each of the Hottest 100 votes posted on social media pages had the same pattern. Using this pattern Drewe discovered that each vote carried a unique identifier, and began searching Twitter for different search queries. This allowed Drewe to collect 35081 votes from 3602 entries and calculate his predicted list of the Hottest 100 countdown.

Last year’s Hottest 100 was compiled from 1.3 million votes, so the Warmest 100 is based on a sample size of over 2%. To investigate Drewe’s methods, The Vine contacted University of Queensland Chair of Applied Statistics, Professor You-Gan Wang who confirmed that if the votes are a random sample among the total potential of 1.3 million the list is likely to be 90% accurate. “I think with the top 100, you might get 90 right. You might get 92 or you might get 95. It’s unlikely you’ll get all 100 correct,” Wang explained. Drewe says as he collated more votes is became clear that that the number one song on his Warmest list broke away from the pack and became a clear winner.

Drewe’s list is quite different from the “”real Hottest 100 of the most played songs on triple j last year, but it’s not going to cause too much panic for bookies who had set tights odds on many of the Warmest list’s predicted leaders. Nonetheless, betting on the result has been suspended.

On Saturday, January 26 we’ll find out if Nick Drewe has becomes Australia’s very own Nate Silver when the Hottest 100 countdown airs on triple j.

WARNING: Only click through to the following link if you really want to see the results:

Head to The Warmest 100 for the full list of songs.