Changes planned for triple j Hottest 100 voting
The Warmest 100 accurately forecast 92 of the 100 songs on Hottest 100 voting, including all the songs in the top 10, but don’t expect to see a similar leak of the voting results next year.
To avoid spoiling the surprise factor on the Australia Day countdown in 2014, triple j has announced they will “make a few changes to the system to avoid spoiler attempts”. The Warmest 100 based their prediction on the sample of 35 thousand votes, which were published by voters on social media sites such as Facebook and Twitter. That represents roughly two percent of the total number of votes in the Hottest 100 for 2012. In total 51 percent of voters posted their votes on social media platforms.
The results of the Hottest 100 confirmed the prediction of University of Queensland Chair of Applied Statistics Professor You-Gan Wang who told The Vine last week the list was likely to be 90 percent accurate. “I think with the top 100, you might get 90 right. You might get 92 or you might get 95. It’s unlikely you’ll get all 100 correct,” Wang explained. The publication of the Warmest 100 list led to the suspension of betting on the poll, even though the results closely mirrored the betting odds set by the bookies on the top placed songs.
Despite the accuracy of the Warmest 100 predictions, there were still surprises – Knife Party made it to 55 with ‘Internet Friends’ after being predicted to barely sneak in at 94 and Japandroids’ ‘The House That Heaven Built’ somehow failed to feature on the official Hottest 100 despite being warmly predicted to be the #56 most popular song. Check out the full comparison of Warmest 100 and Hottest 100 lists here.
There were 187,975 voters in the Hottest 100 poll for 2012 (up 11.71% on 2011) registering a total of 1,516,765 votes (up 10% on last year). While triple j says that the poll attracted voters of all ages, the peak age of voters was 21 years old.
Betting on the 2013 Hottest 100 countdown hasn’t opened yet but FL will be putting a cheeky $10 on a novelty song with prominent swearing released after July for the win.